Week 5 Exness economic calendar report 2025
By Paul Reid
This week, the global markets will hinge on a series of pivotal economic releases. I’ve cut through the noise and propaganda to connect the dots, digging into the data and its implications. Let’s dive in:
China Manufacturing PMI (Monday, Jan 27, 01:00 GMT)
The contraction to 49.1 from 50.1 is a clear red flag. Seasonal effects like Lunar New Year can’t fully explain it—this hints at deeper issues in China’s industrial sector, possibly due to weakened global demand and domestic challenges. Expect pressure on industrial commodities like copper and iron ore. AUDUSD could face bearish sentiment given Australia’s trade ties with China. Watch Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index and large-cap Chinese tech stocks like Alibaba and Tencent for reactions.
Federal Reserve Policy Decision (Wednesday, Jan 29, 19:00 GMT)
While no rate change is expected, the Fed’s tone is critical. Markets are watching for any signals of easing later this year as disinflation takes hold. If Powell hints at dovishness, expect the US dollar to weaken, boosting EURUSD, GBPUSD, and gold.
Equities could see a short-term rally, particularly tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq. Keep in mind the media is setting a negative sentiment right now for Nasdaq, claiming the release of a Chinese version of ChatGPT was responsible for an entire tech index falling. Don’t believe everything you hear on mainstream media. The rebound might be delayed until the Buy price is more attractive, but make no mistake, US technological dominance is gearing up, and coming announcements will confirm when a rally is fully primed. Be ready.
US Q4 GDP Estimate (Thursday, Jan 30, 13:30 GMT)
A 3% growth rate is the consensus, but don’t ignore the underlying contributors. Inventory builds have been propping up GDP—this could reverse sharply in Q1. If GDP misses expectations, the S&P 500 could slide, and we might see a risk-off sentiment benefiting safe-haven assets like the Japanese yen (USDJPY lower). A strong print, however, might lift energy stocks and support WTI crude prices.
PCE Price Index (Friday, Jan 31, 13:30 GMT)
The Fed’s favorite inflation metric will be pivotal. If core PCE surprises higher, bond yields could rise sharply, hurting rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and utilities. Bitcoin and Ethereum could also see volatility as investors weigh the broader impact on risk assets. Conversely, a cooler reading would fuel bets on the Fed pausing hikes, potentially rallying gold and risk-on currencies like AUD and NZD.
Other market movers
This week is going to be interesting as some of the biggest names in tech are about to share their quarterly earnings reports.
First off, Meta Platforms is set to report on January 29. There's a lot of anticipation around their earnings, with expectations of over 25% year-on-year growth. You should definitely keep an eye on how their investments in AI are paying off, especially with their new generative AI advertising tools.
Microsoft is also reporting on January 29, and they're expected to show about a 10% increase in revenue compared to last year. Be sure to check out how their advancements in AI are impacting their bottom line, especially with Azure's performance being a key area of focus.
Tesla is another big one reporting on January 29. They're expected to show earnings growth of around 5% compared to last year. Pay attention to updates on their vehicle production and profitability, as these are crucial indicators of their overall health.
Lastly, Apple is set to report on January 30, with projected earnings growth of about 8%. There's been some concern about potential revenue shortfalls and demand for upcoming products like the iPhone 17, so it's worth seeing how they address these challenges.
Overall, AI is still the buzzword in the tech sector, with companies pouring money into AI technologies. This trend is expected to continue, and it'll be fascinating to see how it influences both earnings and future growth strategies.
The market has been performing well, with the S&P 500 reaching record highs. However, how Big Tech does will be crucial in sustaining this momentum, as these companies are a significant part of the market's growth.
And if that wasn't enough, this week also includes a key Federal Reserve meeting, which could impact market sentiment alongside these earnings reports. Plus, we'll get to see various economic indicators from around the world, like China's industrial profits and Germany's GDP, which will give us a broader view of global economic health.
Conclusion
This week isn’t about blanket predictions; it’s about knowing where the vulnerabilities lie. Uncertainty in the market is a signal to pause, not act. Before risking your money, test your ideas in a demo account. It gives you a chance to gain experience, adapt to market conditions, and refine your skills—without the stress of losing real funds.
For forex, I’d focus on USDJPY, AUDUSD, and EURUSD. Commodities like gold, copper, and crude oil could see significant swings. Crypto’s correlation with risk assets might present opportunities, especially if inflation data surprises. Traders need to be ready for sharp moves—volatility is almost a given. To catch those crucial market moments, download a trading app on your mobile device. Real-time updates will keep you informed and give you the speed needed to react to changes quickly, even on the go.
This is not investment advice. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Your capital is at risk, please trade responsibly.
Author:
Paul Reid
Paul Reid is a financial journalist dedicated to uncovering hidden fundamental connections that can give traders an advantage. Focusing primarily on the stock market, Paul's instincts for identifying major company shifts is well established from following the financial markets for over a decade.